Horses Surefire Winner Yarmouth

Published on June 27th, 2013 | by Duncan Thomson

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A Surefire Winner For The Races At Yarmouth Today

I do love it when a plan comes together. Tuesday’s bet on Gold Top was won with consummate ease, netting us a profit of 10 points on the day, and notching up another decent winner for my (somewhat random) Eyecatchers column which has proved very profitable so far this year. Yesterday was another excellent day for RacingDatabase readers too with Mike’s Hot/Cold Races section producing a profit of 11 points on the day, including the winner of the hottest race of the day, the Carlisle Bell, at 8/1!

Moving onto today and there’s another of my eyecatchers running at Yarmouth this afternoon, but unfortunately there’s no 5/1 flying around this time. That’s the only problem – the price – but even so, I thought I’d mention it to you as I was impressed with it last time and I’m sure it will win today.

Here is what I said about it in my last Eyecatchers Column on May 28th…

Ertijaal (28th May at Leicester)

This looked a good maiden on paper with several well-bred entries from top stables competing, but Toormore took it up with a furlong to go and quickly took lengths out of the field. Ertijaal gave chase and was only just beaten a neck at the line, with a further 7 lengths back to the third. They’re both entered in top 2yo races later in the season and I can see both picking up prizes along the way.

He’s been dropped into a little four runner maiden race at Yarmouth today, but it’s not a bad race on paper with the second favourite, Exceeder, achieving a RPR rating of 83 off the back of his sole start to date and the third favourite, Gilmer, looking the part on breeding. However, it was a hot race Ertijaal ran in last time, the first two pulled 7 lengths clear of the third, and he was awarded a RPR rating of 96 for that effort – some 13lb better than the second favourite and an excellent rating for a maiden with only one run to his name – so he’ll take some pegging back if turning up in the same mood today.

So, on all known form, Ertijaal is the one to beat, that much is obvious, but to back up actually risking money on it at the price I thought some research into the competition was necessary.

Here are Marco Botti’s stats in maiden races:

Marco Botti Maiden Stats

As you can see, they don’t tend to do well first time out, or on their second start, but they do improve over time. If I’d seen a marked improvement, generally, with his runners second time out I might have considered that Exceeder may improve considerably on his 83 rating from last time. But I didn’t.

Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners actually do well first time out, but they improve for the run too:

Saeed Bin Suroor Maiden Stats

On the other side of the coin, check out how William Haggas’ maidens tend to do:

William Haggas Maiden Stats

A mere 9% success rate on their first start, but that shoots up to 22% on their second start and their strike-rate is steady over their subsequent starts too. But, here’s the thing… Ertijaal doesn’t need to improve to win this race. He’s already shown more than enough to warrant his position at the head of the market and if anything beats him today, well, that one will be a damn good horse to follow!

So, I’ve backed him today, at 1/2, because I think that he’ll win and win well.

Yarmouth 2.20pm – Ertijaal – 6 points to win at 4/9 (BOG with Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes)

He was 1/2 earlier, but in the time it’s taken to write this he’s shortened up a notch. Maybe backing odds-on isn’t your thing, but it’s no different to laying a 2/1 or 9/4 favourite that you’re sure will lose and I’m quite sure that this one will win, and win well, so I’ve backed him… strongly! :-)

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About the Author

has been "working" as a professional betting exchange trader since way back in 2006 when he resigned from - in his own words - "a boring IT job" to pursue a career doing something he loved. A self-confessed "tech geek", Duncan was one of the first people in the UK to set up an independent trading team on-course to profit from the time delay in TV broadcasts, so his experience is very welcome here!



8 Responses to A Surefire Winner For The Races At Yarmouth Today

  1. d. McGovern says:

    Hi guys is this site now finished? No info for months now !

  2. Atholl Blair says:

    Nicely done mate. I made a wage off that today too. It was an impressive performance. They have to have Group race plans for it now. That was a 100+ performance.

  3. Mike says:

    I understand what you’re saying about the odds, so it’s like laying a 2/1 chance. I also know that backing one at 1/2 and it going off at 1/3 or less, which looks likely, is similar to a 5/1 shot who goes off at 7/2, 3/1, or less. Even 4/9 makes it a good value bet! ;-)

    • Mike says:

      Wow, that’s how to pick an odds-on shot. 1/2 into 1/4 and it won by 6 lengths!

      • Duncan says:

        Correct. I thought 1/2 was an amazing price and wrote 600+ words, screenshots included, at 8am this morning to try and get the point across that it was an astounding bet at that price. Easy does it. I’m going on holiday tomorrow and the week is covered off the back of that. When the price is right, and you’re sure they’ll win, you need to get stuck in!

        • Atholl Blair says:

          Well said and well done. The idea of “value” is in the eye of the beholder. I thought it was value at 1/2 this morning too. The fact that it went off at 1/4 and won like a 1/10 confirms that. I’ve got no problem whatsoever backing odds on when the situation is right. And today was one of those days.

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