Published on June 27th, 2013 | by Duncan Thomson8
A Surefire Winner For The Races At Yarmouth Today
I do love it when a plan comes together. Tuesday’s bet on Gold Top was won with consummate ease, netting us a profit of 10 points on the day, and notching up another decent winner for my (somewhat random) Eyecatchers column which has proved very profitable so far this year. Yesterday was another excellent day for RacingDatabase readers too with Mike’s Hot/Cold Races section producing a profit of 11 points on the day, including the winner of the hottest race of the day, the Carlisle Bell, at 8/1!
Moving onto today and there’s another of my eyecatchers running at Yarmouth this afternoon, but unfortunately there’s no 5/1 flying around this time. That’s the only problem – the price – but even so, I thought I’d mention it to you as I was impressed with it last time and I’m sure it will win today.
Here is what I said about it in my last Eyecatchers Column on May 28th…
Ertijaal (28th May at Leicester)
This looked a good maiden on paper with several well-bred entries from top stables competing, but Toormore took it up with a furlong to go and quickly took lengths out of the field. Ertijaal gave chase and was only just beaten a neck at the line, with a further 7 lengths back to the third. They’re both entered in top 2yo races later in the season and I can see both picking up prizes along the way.
He’s been dropped into a little four runner maiden race at Yarmouth today, but it’s not a bad race on paper with the second favourite, Exceeder, achieving a RPR rating of 83 off the back of his sole start to date and the third favourite, Gilmer, looking the part on breeding. However, it was a hot race Ertijaal ran in last time, the first two pulled 7 lengths clear of the third, and he was awarded a RPR rating of 96 for that effort – some 13lb better than the second favourite and an excellent rating for a maiden with only one run to his name – so he’ll take some pegging back if turning up in the same mood today.
So, on all known form, Ertijaal is the one to beat, that much is obvious, but to back up actually risking money on it at the price I thought some research into the competition was necessary.
Here are Marco Botti’s stats in maiden races:
As you can see, they don’t tend to do well first time out, or on their second start, but they do improve over time. If I’d seen a marked improvement, generally, with his runners second time out I might have considered that Exceeder may improve considerably on his 83 rating from last time. But I didn’t.
Saeed Bin Suroor’s runners actually do well first time out, but they improve for the run too:
On the other side of the coin, check out how William Haggas’ maidens tend to do:
A mere 9% success rate on their first start, but that shoots up to 22% on their second start and their strike-rate is steady over their subsequent starts too. But, here’s the thing… Ertijaal doesn’t need to improve to win this race. He’s already shown more than enough to warrant his position at the head of the market and if anything beats him today, well, that one will be a damn good horse to follow!
So, I’ve backed him today, at 1/2, because I think that he’ll win and win well.
He was 1/2 earlier, but in the time it’s taken to write this he’s shortened up a notch. Maybe backing odds-on isn’t your thing, but it’s no different to laying a 2/1 or 9/4 favourite that you’re sure will lose and I’m quite sure that this one will win, and win well, so I’ve backed him… strongly!