Backing Simple Horse Racing System

Published on May 10th, 2013 | by Mike Bell

19

A Simple Horse Racing System To Put Into Action Today

If you’ve been following us on Twitter, Facebook or Google+ lately you’ll probably have noticed that we’ve become a lot more pro-active over the last few days. The reason for this is primarily that since we introduced the Hot Races/Cold Races and Daily Racing Stats sections to the site, well, we’ve had a lot more to say, because covering 10 or more races every day makes life a bit more interesting! :-)

If you haven’t checked out those sections yet, you should. We haven’t been getting it right every time, but there’s solid information in there every day and we’ve had some good runs of winners, and losers too (when laying!), so they’re already starting to show their worth. It’s something that I’m very keen to develop over time too and I’ve actually been working on a lot of different ideas all of this week.

One of those, which is quite topical at the moment with lots of early season maiden races, came from an idea I had a few weeks back regarding fancied horses who had ran in maidens, been beaten, and then were contesting their next race. My thinking behind it was that if a horse is fancied in the betting on its first run then, you would think anyway, that either the breeding would suggest, or the stable thought, that it was good enough to win its first race. Makes sense, huh? I think so anyway.

Well, I sat down and thought about maiden races and my very first thought was that I’d avoid those tricky 5 furlong sprints. The reason for this is kind of obvious – unraced two year olds “wobbling about” on their first start over sprint type trips, without much ground to cover, never really appeal to me from a betting point of view, so I stuck to races over 6 furlongs or more. Then I simply looked for beaten favourites (to gather the market strength from the previous run) who had ran reasonably well first time out (finished 2nd) and who were fancied again in today’s race (in the first three in the betting).

It was as simple as that. There’s no fancy formulas here. No stupid staking plans. And everything I looked at is plain commonsense when you think about it. Don’t you agree? I think so.

Well, just check out these results…

Simple Horse Racing System

Just in case that image doesn’t show up properly on your phone or whatever, here’s the deal. Almost 45% of the qualifiers have won, almost 75% have placed, backing them outright has resulted in a profit of 126 points at SP and (over a substantial number of bets) the ROI is over 11% at Starting Price.

That’s great alone, but you don’t need to bet at Starting Price. Obviously. So the profits you could achieve with this might well be substantially higher if you play your cards right.

Okay, so here are the rules…

  • Fav for a maiden last time, over 6 furlongs plus, 1 length or more clear of the 3rd.
  • Racing today in another maiden and again needs to be in the first three in the betting.

Simple as that. Cool, huh? It might not make you rich (and probably won’t!), but it’s definitely something to consider the next time you’re thinking about placing a bet in a maiden race. A 45% strike-rate isn’t to be sniffed at, but you could definitely make a good few quid every year off the back of this too.

There are three running tonight by the way…

  1. Cork 6.10pm – Ghaamer
  2. Ripon 8.05pm – Rapscallion Deep
  3. Cork 8.20pm – Bint Nayef

… who are almost definitely going to get beat now after I’ve said that! :-)

Either way, I hope this kind of information is useful to you. I’ve gathered a whole bunch of stuff like this, which I’ll share with you over the next few weeks, so if you haven’t already please do subscribe to our feeds on Twitter, Facebook or Google+. You’ll receive a wealth of info every day at the very least!

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About the Author

is our statistics guy at RacingDatabase.com. In a 6 month period prior to joining our team he sent us over 200 bets that produced a healthy 23% strike-rate, and more importantly, a ROI of close to 38%, so for every pound you spend on Mike's bets you're assured of a good return. His attention to detail is amazing when it comes to uncovering profitable stats about races and you'll do well to follow his advice!



19 Responses to A Simple Horse Racing System To Put Into Action Today

  1. Mike says:

    Another winner at 5/1 today. The results from this have been amazing. There isn’t a bet every day, but you can get them in the Daily Race Stats section (see the top navbar) whenever there are. Today’s winner won by 8 lengths!

  2. Mike says:

    This is still going strong – the S/R is still practically 50% and today there was a 9/2 winner, Cushion, who hacked up by 3 lengths!

  3. yuri says:

    you look very much like adam seaton on the asian handicap service unless you have a twin

    • Mike says:

      I can honestly say that I’ve never heard of Adam Seaton and I’ve also never placed a bet on an Asian handicap in my life either. Nice to hear that there’s someone as good looking as me out there though :-)

  4. Mike says:

    There’s another one tonight, Duke Cosimo in the 8.50pm at Pontefract, but it’s 1/3!

  5. Mike says:

    Two qualifiers yesterday. The first one finished nowhere, but the second one was backed from 5/2 or 9/4 (I took 9/4) into 6/4 and won by 4 lengths! I’ve got another one for today, but there’s no market formed yet so check out the “daily race stats” section later as I’ll post it there ~ http://racingdatabase.com/horse-racing-statistics/

    • Mike says:

      Yesterday’s didn’t do so well, but there’s another today again. It’s in the stats section, link above.

      I didn’t realise until this morning but our web guy installed a caching plugin on the site on Friday to try and speed it up a bit, only it was caching the stats section and hot races / cold races section too. I was always logged in to the site so I could see the updates but I’m not sure if anyone else could. We’ve fixed that today and you should be able to see everything fine now.

  6. Mike says:

    There are two running tonight again, but both in the same race at 8.20pm

    Check ~ http://racingdatabase.com/horse-racing-statistics/

    5/4 and 9/2 at the moment.

    • Duncan says:

      Sharp Crisp Air was backed from 9/2 into 5/2. It was the fav who did the biz at 6/4 though. Still a 1/2 point profit on an easy dutch like that isn’t bad.

  7. Mike says:

    There’s a horse going today – Dairam in the 6.35pm at Chepstow.

  8. Steve C says:

    Hi Mike

    In your rules you mention “beaten a length or more into 2nd”. The two selections above that won were actually beaten 1/4l and 1/2l last time out. Don’t get me wrong not being picky just wanted to clarify before following them.

    All the best

    • Mike says:

      Sorry Steve, that was my fault. It shouldn’t have been beaten a length or more, it should have said finished a length or more clear of the third. I’ve updated that now and will post updates on the site too (in the daily stats section) whenever there are selections. If you use Horseracebase I can send you the exact rules to enter there too if you like.

  9. Mike says:

    There aren’t qualifiers today by the way. I’ll post them in the stats section (check “Daily Race Stats” at the top of the page) whenever they appear in future.

  10. Atholl Blair says:

    Hehe, day one and you pulled a double. The other was a non-runner.

    What else can I say – tremendous!

    Atholl

    • Mike says:

      The first one was short enough, but to be fair it halved in price between me writing that and the race starting. Good timing all the same – I just thought I’d mention this yesterday and then the first two go in. Result. I’ve actually been mentioning any qualifiers in the stats section for the last couple of weeks and one of those, which won, was available at 6/1 early so they aren’t all so short.

  11. Atholl Blair says:

    I love that. Simplicity is the key and how simple was that? Great stuff, once again, Mike!

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