Published on May 10th, 2013 | by Mike Bell20
A Simple Horse Racing System To Put Into Action Today
If you’ve been following us on Twitter, Facebook or Google+ lately you’ll probably have noticed that we’ve become a lot more pro-active over the last few days. The reason for this is primarily that since we introduced the Hot Races/Cold Races and Daily Racing Stats sections to the site, well, we’ve had a lot more to say, because covering 10 or more races every day makes life a bit more interesting!
If you haven’t checked out those sections yet, you should. We haven’t been getting it right every time, but there’s solid information in there every day and we’ve had some good runs of winners, and losers too (when laying!), so they’re already starting to show their worth. It’s something that I’m very keen to develop over time too and I’ve actually been working on a lot of different ideas all of this week.
One of those, which is quite topical at the moment with lots of early season maiden races, came from an idea I had a few weeks back regarding fancied horses who had ran in maidens, been beaten, and then were contesting their next race. My thinking behind it was that if a horse is fancied in the betting on its first run then, you would think anyway, that either the breeding would suggest, or the stable thought, that it was good enough to win its first race. Makes sense, huh? I think so anyway.
Well, I sat down and thought about maiden races and my very first thought was that I’d avoid those tricky 5 furlong sprints. The reason for this is kind of obvious – unraced two year olds “wobbling about” on their first start over sprint type trips, without much ground to cover, never really appeal to me from a betting point of view, so I stuck to races over 6 furlongs or more. Then I simply looked for beaten favourites (to gather the market strength from the previous run) who had ran reasonably well first time out (finished 2nd) and who were fancied again in today’s race (in the first three in the betting).
It was as simple as that. There’s no fancy formulas here. No stupid staking plans. And everything I looked at is plain commonsense when you think about it. Don’t you agree? I think so.
Well, just check out these results…
Just in case that image doesn’t show up properly on your phone or whatever, here’s the deal. Almost 45% of the qualifiers have won, almost 75% have placed, backing them outright has resulted in a profit of 126 points at SP and (over a substantial number of bets) the ROI is over 11% at Starting Price.
That’s great alone, but you don’t need to bet at Starting Price. Obviously. So the profits you could achieve with this might well be substantially higher if you play your cards right.
Okay, so here are the rules…
- Fav for a maiden last time, over 6 furlongs plus, 1 length or more clear of the 3rd.
- Racing today in another maiden and again needs to be in the first three in the betting.
Simple as that. Cool, huh? It might not make you rich (and probably won’t!), but it’s definitely something to consider the next time you’re thinking about placing a bet in a maiden race. A 45% strike-rate isn’t to be sniffed at, but you could definitely make a good few quid every year off the back of this too.
There are three running tonight by the way…
- Cork 6.10pm – Ghaamer
- Ripon 8.05pm – Rapscallion Deep
- Cork 8.20pm – Bint Nayef
… who are almost definitely going to get beat now after I’ve said that!
Either way, I hope this kind of information is useful to you. I’ve gathered a whole bunch of stuff like this, which I’ll share with you over the next few weeks, so if you haven’t already please do subscribe to our feeds on Twitter, Facebook or Google+. You’ll receive a wealth of info every day at the very least!