Backing Nathaniel

Published on July 21st, 2012 | by Atholl Blair

Nathaniel Primed For Back To Back Wins In The King George

We were on Nathaniel two weeks ago when he did the business in the Coral Eclipse and after much time spent deliberating the options, I think it’s worthwhile reinvesting some of our winnings, because I’m quietly confident that he’s much the most likely winner of this year’s King George again too.

As I said two weeks ago… “Last year he won the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot by 5 lengths and he followed that up with an emphatic win in what is arguably the best middle distance race of the year, the King George, beating the 2010 Derby winner, Workforce, by 2 3/4 lengths with St Nicholas Abbey a further 1 1/4 lengths back in third”… and there’s every reason to think that he can’t do it again…

His win in the Coral Eclipse a fortnight ago was more workmanlike than scintillating, but he put the race to bed a full 3 furlongs out and the only perceivable danger from that point on was the Godolphin trained Farhh, who gave it his best shot but simply couldn’t get past him. I liked that performance. He was racing for the first time in almost 10 months and the 10 furlong trip probably wasn’t ideal either, but he showed speed, stamina and courage when it mattered and that counts for a lot.

You could argue (and many appear to be) that there’s a chance he could bounce after having a 10 month layoff and then coming back with a win, but on the other side of the coin if Farhh had won the Eclipse and Nathaniel had been closing all the way to the line, those same people would probably be saying that it was the perfect prep run for the King George. So it’s a case of ‘enough said’ about that!

Of the dangers, Sea Moon has an obvious chance after hacking up in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, but he’s never won a Group 1 before so still has something to prove. Dunaden was beat fair and square by Sea Moon in that same race and some say that he was kind of unlucky, but I don’t think so – luck or no luck, he’d never have got past Sea Moon.  Then we’ve got St Nicholas Abbey and he’s a bit of an odd one, because he can turn out top-class performances now and again… would I trust him to do it today? The simple answer is no. I think they’ve all got something to prove to Nathaniel.

If there is a fly in the ointment it could be the filly, Danedream, who won the Arc in astonishing style last year. She’s failed to impress in a couple of starts since then, but I don’t know. I get the feeling that there could be excuses for those. Conditions will maybe suit her well today too.

Either way, I like this bet a lot and I’m going to go in again with the following stake…

Ascot 4.35pm – Nathaniel – 4 points to win (take the early 3/1 that’s available!)

Just the same stake as last time. We made 16 points on that bet – £160 profit to tenners, £320 to twenties, £800 to £50′s and £1,600 to £100′s – so I’m happy to get stuck in again and reinvest some of those winnings. I’m quite sure that we’re going to get a good run for our money again this week!

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About The Author

is a lifelong horse racing enthusiast and full-time exchange trader with over 10 years experience in profitable trading. He's an expert at spotting when the odds are out of sync and will only back, lay or trade a position when he's 100% sure that everything is in place to generate a profit. When we need advice about a bet we ask Atholl and you're welcome to quiz him with your betting related questions too.


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