Backing Claiming Races

Published on June 11th, 2013 | by Mike Bell

10

How To Profit From Claiming Races This Flat Season

Claiming races. They’re like Sellers, but usually marginally better in terms of quality, and the rules are different. In a claiming race the trainer is allowed to set the price that’s he’s willing to sell the horse for and the higher the price he chooses, the higher the weight the horse will carry in the race.

What this means is that the trainer effectively handicaps his own horse. If the cap for the claiming price is £10,000 and the trainer decides that he won’t sell for less than that, then his horse will carry top-weight in the race. And if he wants to drop the weight that the horse carries he’s got no choice but to drop the claiming price. That’s essentially how claiming races, or Claimers, in the UK, work.

So, how do you make money out of Claiming races?

Simple. You back the best horse in the race.

Funny, huh? Like you didn’t think of that already, but it’s actually very profitable to concentrate on the horse with the highest Official Rating (OR) in Claimers. I’ve been following this for years now and every year it’s made a good few quid for me, as you can see from the results below…

Claiming Races Stats

Here are the results for the last five full years and this season so far:

Claimer Races Stats

Now, I know that you’re going to look at that report and think “but it’s made a loss this year!”. Which is absolutely correct, but that doesn’t mean that it won’t correct itself as the current season goes on and personally I’d take that as an indication of “now is the time to get stuck right in!”. Another thing you need to consider is that we’re looking at SP stats and you could definitely do better with BOG these days!

I think this is quite a cool little system and here are the rules you need to use:

  • Favourites only.
  • UK Claiming races, flat or all-weather.
  • The horse must have the highest OR in the race.
  • Even money or better (you don’t want to bet odds-on in Claimers)

And that’s it. No fancy staking plans, no silly rules, just plain old commonsense stuff that you can take away and start using this week. But you don’t even need to look for the selections yourself, because I’ll be posting them every day from now on in the Daily Race Stats section on the website. The only thing you need to do yourself is visit RacingDatabase every day to get the selections. It’s as easy as that! ;-)

Oh yeah, and while I’m here, I want to tell you about something else that I think, quite confidently, will absolutely blow you away. I’ve had this guy sending me his bets every day for the last 3-4 months – he just contacted me through the site one day and asked me to take a look at it – and I’ve honestly never seen anything quite like this in my life. The most I’ve seen him lose on a single race has been less than £10, but I’ve seen him making £200-£300 on individual races, and £2k to £3k a month, sometimes more, and his success rate with this is absolutely wicked. It’s practically a no-lose strategy too.

I’ll fill you in about it in the next couple of days. I’m going to test it live on the site, so you’ll be able to see for yourself how damn good it is. I’m totally sold on this method and I think when you see it action you will be too. It’s incredible, really. I’ll try to get moving with it tomorrow. Stay tuned…

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About the Author

is our statistics guy at RacingDatabase.com. In a 6 month period prior to joining our team he sent us over 200 bets that produced a healthy 23% strike-rate, and more importantly, a ROI of close to 38%, so for every pound you spend on Mike's bets you're assured of a good return. His attention to detail is amazing when it comes to uncovering profitable stats about races and you'll do well to follow his advice!



10 Responses to How To Profit From Claiming Races This Flat Season

  1. Donal McGovern says:

    Hi guys, is there any way to check the following Beting all j gosdens runners priced over 10/1 over the last 2 years or so? where would we be on a + or minus situation ! Thank you

    • Mike says:

      Hi Donal,

      It’s actually not too bad. I included the whole of 2011 and 2012 and the current season to date and the S/R is only 7.25%, but there’s been 276 bets, 20 winners, the profit to SP is 56 points, the place S/R is 28%, and the ROI is 20%. You would have won in all of these years too!

      Mike

      • d. McGovern says:

        Thank you so much mike! Similarly I wondered if it could prove profitable to punt a top jock( k fallon) in handicaps where he went off at 10/1 or bigger! Promise I won’t keep any more questions mike!

        • Mike says:

          That was another good one Donal. I looked at flat handicaps only, no all-weather, 2011, 2012 and the current season, Fallon onboard, 10/1 or over, and got this…

          18/206, a 9% S/R, 120pts profit at SP, 58% ROI, and at estimated Betfair odds the profit increased to 143 points.

          Prior to 2011 every year was a loser, only marginally at SP though, but it’s proved profitable in the last couple of seasons.

          Something to note is that he had a 66/1 winner in the Cesarewitch last October so that’s bumping the profits right up, but then again what price was that horse on Betfair? 100/1+ surely, so if you were backing all of them on BF the odds would be a lot higher than what you see here.

          You might want to consider doing all of these runners each-way too, because almost 25% of them have made the frame.

          And something else to note is that there was one run in amongst them where he had 39 losers in the row (not taking into account e/w places, just wins) so if you were just doing straight wins you would need to have a bit of a pot put aside for it.

          Feel free to ask questions. It doesn’t take me long to look into stuff like this.

  2. Duncan says:

    That was great Mike and I heard you saying on G+ last night that you had something special to show us. Now you’ve got me intrigued. I’ll look forward to hearing more about the other strategy you’re talking about. It sounds amazing!

    • Atholl Blair says:

      He was telling me about it last night Duncan and it is quite clever.

      • Mike says:

        I emailed the guy yesterday to make sure it was okay but he hasn’t replied yet. He did say earlier that it was cool but I want to double check with him first.

        The stats weren’t automatically feeding into the Hot Races and Stats sections today and it’s taken me all morning trying to get it fixed, which I haven’t, so I’ve had to update it manually today. The program has stopped working. It’s got something to do with the Twitter API being updated so I’m told. My time has ran out now as the racing is on, so I’ll need to get on to that other thing tomorrow.

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