Dutching Ghizao

Published on April 17th, 2013 | by Atholl Blair


Two Well-Weighted Horses To Back Today At Cheltenham

Yesterday’s bet came good in some style. I suspected that Coole River may not be the force he once was and so it proved as he went off the 2/5 favourite and was beaten by a horse who was 23lb wrong at the weights on official ratings. Minimal risk and a nice 4 point profit – just my type of bet! :-)

Today I’m heading to Cheltenham where four of the races are big-field handicaps that don’t look the easiest to decipher, but I am particularly keen on the 3.55pm race from a betting a point of view. Only 7 runners are entered, mostly horses who we’ve seen numerous times this season and whose form lines have coincided at various points, and a turnaround of previous form could be on the cards.

The thing about this race is that it’s the first time the horses have met each other in a handicap for some time, so they’re racing off their proper official marks instead of off level weights, or with minor weight concessions. For example, Menorah beat Hunt Ball, with Ghizao in third, back in December and the latter was giving the others weight even though he was inferior to them on official ratings. Today, however, the third placed Ghizao is in receipt of a stone in weight from Menorah and 7lb from Hunt Ball, for an 8 length beating, so that almost certainly levels the playing field somewhat.

Martin Keighley’s Champion Court is in a similar position. He’s rated 155, the same as Ghizao, yet he’s been competing in races like the King George at Kempton off level weights against horses such as Long Run who is rated 17lb better than him. When you look through their most recent races there are many different examples of this, so now that they’re in a handicap with the weights in their favour you would have to think that both horses have a reasonable chance of turning the form around today.

So, that’s what I’m going with:

Cheltenham 3.55pm – Ghizao – 1 point to win at 17/2 (BOG with William Hill)

Cheltenham 3.55pm – Champion Court – 1 point to win at 9/4 (BOG with BetVictor)

I think the better ground will suit both horses better and they’ve each had a break of a month, whereas the other main contenders raced just 13 days ago and that was after a hard season too.

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About the Author

is a lifelong horse racing enthusiast and full-time exchange trader with over 10 years experience in profitable trading. He's an expert at spotting when the odds are out of sync and will only back, lay or trade a position when he's 100% sure that everything is in place to generate a profit. When we need advice about a bet we ask Atholl and you're welcome to quiz him with your betting related questions too.

3 Responses to Two Well-Weighted Horses To Back Today At Cheltenham

  1. Duncan says:

    Well played mate. It looked as though he was beat at the last but the way he rallied up the hill to get his head in front again was impressive!

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